With Trials Day done and dusted and the curtain down on the Dublin Festival, it’s not too early in all decency to start talking about Cheltenham. As always, the only place to begin is with the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
The consensus seems to be that if Samcro is chosen for this race, he will be hard to beat. After the season he’s had and victory in yesterday’s 2 mile Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown, that’s difficult to argue with. However, the noises coming out of the Elliott camp are that the Ballymore is the most likely destination and I would have thought the longer distance would give him the opportunity of show off his sublime ability to move through the gears. It would also avoid a showdown with Getabird, who Gordon Elliott is quoted as saying that he “Would be frightened by”.
Working on the premise the two horses won’t meet, I don’t believe Getabird will represent value, at what will probably be an extremely short priced favourite. Untested over hurdles on the sort of going he is likely to encounter at Cheltenham, his times are also arguably not consistent with a race where speed is a key component. Further, the size of the field will be a new challenge, as will the opening Festival atmosphere.
The horse I would make a case for is Harry Fry’s If The Cap Fits. If you’ve seen him run, there are good reasons to be put off. He can probably be politely described as quirky: he can hang to the right or the left, depending on how the mood takes him and you’re never sure if he’s going to leap a hurdle like a chaser or gracelessly clip it. I also have to accept this will be a jump in class. However, since finishing 4th in the Aintree Bumper back in April, he’s won all three races this season as a Novice Hurdler, on a variety of ground. With impressive times, the victories have come as a front runner and also having to make up significant distance. If you add to that a stables that seems to be finding form at the right time, the current 8/1 – although shortening as I write- looks like a decent punt.
If The Cap Fits is also entered in the Ballymore, but Harry Fry has made it clear the Supreme is the likely target and given he has never jumped further that 18 furlongs, that would seem to make sense. On that basis, I can see no reason to be tempted by no runner no bet.
It might be worth noting that all rides have gone to Noel Fehily this season and suspecting he is a horse that is far from straight forward, I might have concerns should a less experienced jockey end up on him at Cheltenham.
And one final word of caution, picking out a winner in this race can be far from easy. I wonder how many tipped the serial race refuser, Labaik, to win last year at 25/1.